Meet OhMyBet!

OhMyBet.com is an information service designed to help you earn money on tennis betting using predictions by Artificial Intelligence.

It uses machine learning algorithms to pick winners in upcoming tennis matches with high probability. We do not use predictions by human experts. OhMyBet! is powered by a fully independent Artificial Intelligence model.

We do not provide gambling services and neither accept bets nor place bets. All content published on ohmybet.com is informational only. Please read out Terms of Use

We took the statistics of more than 825,000 past ITF and ATP matches since 2000 to 2014 and extracted the most relevant match and player features, such as tournament, court type, match result, aces, double faults, first and second serve winning percentage, average serve speed, player age, estimated motivation to win, head-to-head history, injuries, rest time between matches, etc.

We have applied machine learning algorithms to this data and obtained a predictive model which is able to pick the winner in an upcoming match based on the previously analyzed historical data. Matches played in 2015 have been used to validate the model. Result: 12% ROI and 85% maximum accuracy.

Register with your email and enter the OhMyBet! system. Explore live-updated prediction history for free to see the system’s accuracy. To receive predictions for upcoming matches, choose among our plans according to your needs.

With your subscription, you immediately unlock a list of upcoming matches with the predicted winner to bet on. You can mark the matches you have bet on to gather personal statistics.

After a free registration you have a full access to the predictions history since January 2015 to current match – it will help you test the system and see the prediction accuracy.

After the current match ends, our database updates and the prediction result appears in the History tab. This way you at once see the prediction result as if you have bet yourself but with no risk to your money.

To receive predictions for upcoming matches, choose among our plans according to your needs.

Predictive model

Our predictive model estimates the probability of a player winning the match using previously analyzed historical data on similar players and matches. The model picks only highest probability winners.

Yes. The odds displayed on OhMyBet.com are not part of any calculation used to determine winning probabilities.

Odds are used after the calculation of the most probable winners to select the bets with an edge over bookmakers: a prediction with high win probability but low starting odds is removed and not published on the site.

We use ROI (Return on Investment) generated from competition against the historical betting market as a KPI for the predictive model. Measuring the performance of the model based on the ROI is common in the academic research on betting.

If you use model accuracy (win rate) as the main KPI, a simple filtration of predictions with odds 1.01-1.3 can give you 90% accuracy and more, but your profit and ROI, naturally, will be negative.

OhMyBet! ROI for 2015 is 12%. Maximum accuracy for 2015 is 85%.

Drawdown is a situation when the bookmaker lowers starting odds to compensate for their risks. Drawdown happens almost for every match and there is no way to completely avoid it. It is possible however to lessen its effects.

OhMyBet! model does not take drawdown into account. An average drawdown for the matches predicted by OhMyBet! is 0.04-0.1 pt. It is not much and it doesn’t affect the resulting ROI substantially. Drawdown can be dealt with using several methods:

1. Place your bet soon after the prediction appears in the system. The predictions are made available usually 24 hours before the match and it is possible to catch the odds close to the starting value.

2. Look for better odds at various bookies. You can compare odds on many tennis analytics sites, for example on Tennis Explorer.

3. Starting odds may as well grow over time, especially during the match. However, it is risky to hope only for odds growth. We recommend placing your bet as soon as it appeared in the system, choosing a bookie with best odds available.

4. Use betting exchanges instead of bookmakers.

Payments

You can subscribe to 1, 3 or 6 months.

The longer the period you choose, the more you save. For example, 6-month access will cost you $16 a week, instead of $22 a week with a month subscription. You save $135 (25%). Three-month subscription costs $19 a week, you save $38 (15%) compared to 1-month plan.

You can pay with Visa/MasterCard or using your PayPal account.

Payments are powered and secured by Paddle.

Your card data are secured and processed according to PCI DSS security standard. Data transfer to the payment gateway is carried out using SSL secure encryption technology. The data are used in the encrypted mode only and are not stored on OhMyBet! servers.

According to our User Agreemenetwe do not reimburse any losses that may arise in the event of intentional or unintentional use of the website and its services by the user (see pp. 7.1, 7.2, 7.3).

If your issue is special, write us to support@ohmybet.com and we will try to resolve it.

Tennis predictions

As a rule, tennis predictions are made available at 1AM UTC+1 (Berlin, Prague, Vienna) as our database updates. That is, the prediction for a match 15:00 21.07.2016 becomes available at 00.00 21.07.2016 UTC+1.

Note that the algorithm self-improves after every passed match and it can add new matches to the system at other time, closer to the event, as our database is updated.

We recommend checking the site regularly during the day to keep track of newly appeared predictions.

Dates are official match dates with start time set at UTC+1 (Berlin, Prague, Vienna). You can select your time zone in the main menu of the system.

We take odds from Pinnacle.

It depends on the season, but generally OhMyBet! picks out 1–3 matches a day with the best win probability and high odds for the predicted winner in order to maximize your ROI and minimize risks. However, there may be days without predictions whatsoever.

The algorithm self-improves after every passed match and it can add or remove matches at other time as our database updates. The match can also be cancelled or delayed, and if it affects the odds negatively, the algorithm can remove it from the system.

As the algorithm works on the black box principle, we cannot detect the reason why a particular match was removed. If the prediction was added and then removed, but you see acceptable odds from bookmakers, you can try to place your bet.

We recommend checking the site regularly during the day to keep track of newly appeared or removed predictions.

Betting basics

Betting odds represent the return a bettor receives from correctly predicting the outcome of an event. For example, if a bettor correctly predicts the win of a player for whom the odds are 3.00, they will receive $2 for every $1 staked (in addition to their staked amount, which is returned). If the bettor mispredicts the match, they will lose their stake of $1 irrespective of the odds.

There are different odds formats, most popular being European or decimal (1.50, 2.00, 2.50 etc.) and UK or fractional (1/2, 1/1, 6/4 etc.).

Betting odds give an implied probability of the outcome of a match, the bookmaker’s estimate of the true probability. In the above example with odds 3.00 (1 in 3), the implied probability of the player winning the match is 33%.

Yield is the growth of your bankroll from a single bet. For example, if you stake $10 with odds 1.5 and win, you get back $15, and your yield is $5.

ROI is literally Return on Investment, that is investor’s return for a certain period.

When applied to sports betting, ROI is the percentage of profit from a single bet averaged on a distance. ROI with a fixed single bet amount is calculated as ROI = (Profit * 100)/B*N, where Profit is your overall profit on the distance, B is a single bet amount, N is the number of bets (distance).

ROI is used to evaluate the successfulness of a bettor for a certain predetermined amount of time and thus is used as a key performance indicator for the predictive model. OhMyBet! ROI for 2015 is 12%.

The main thing to achieve a good ROI is to choose a reasonably long distance.

Given the betting odds and a predicted probability of a match outcome, a bettor has various betting strategies to choose. Different strategies will result in a different ROI. As a rule, three basic strategies are used:

1. In the simplest strategy, the bettor always bets a fixed amount on the player which they expect to win.

2. A bettor may increase their returns by only betting a fixed amount on matches where they have an edge over the bookmakers, i.e., their probability estimate of player winning is greater than the probability implied by the betting odds. In other words, this strategy avoids betting on the predicted winner when the odds do not sufficiently compensate for the risk of the bet.
OhMyBet! system uses this approach in all its predictions. The model picks only highest probability winners with high odds. The system’s average winning odds is 1.74.

3. Betting on the predicted winner using the Kelly criterion. You stake not a fixed amount, but a fixed percentage of your current bankroll. This way you win more when the prediction wins, and decrease the risk to lose the bankroll when the prediction loses. The Kelly criterion is guaranteed to perform better than any other essentially different betting strategy in the long run.

You may apply this strategy to OhMyBet! predictions to maximize your profit. Use all the predictions recommended by the system and calculate your bet amount based on your current bankroll.

You allocate your bankroll based on the system’s current ROI and an average losing streak.

In OhMyBet! it’s 12% ROI and an average losing streak of 2-3 predictions. That means your bankroll reserve should be about 10 bets, depending on the aggressiveness of your strategy. The aggressiveness of your strategy is determined by the ratio of the single bet amount to your current bankroll: higher bets mean more risk.